Have you ever had a bent branch snap back in your face? Well, it could happen again as we stumble through the dark forest of recession. Much of the recent change in the wine business is driven by consumers, who have increased consumption modestly but have traded down in price. Some of the change in the wine business, however, comes from within the trade itself. In the forced march of recession, no one wants to carry inventory, not the restaurateur nor the retailer, not the distributor, not the winery and not the grower. Investors do not like inventory. And lenders hate it. This recession-induced allergy to inventory creates a situation that is like a bent branch. With a little increase in confidence, demand could snap back quickly. When economic recovery finally spurs consumer demand, everyone who hated inventory is suddenly going to be scrambling for inventory. Apparent excesses could disappear overnight…